ARG Releases New GOP Polls: McCain In Statistical Tie w/ Giuliani in Colo., W. Va.; As Expected, Far Behind In Giuliani’s NY, But A Solid 2nd Place in Giuliani’s Backyard of NJ
American Research Group (ARG) released a new batch of polls on Tuesday, April 3, which were posted by DaveG of http://race42008.com/.
The results were reasonably good for Senator McCain’s campaign. The best news of the four states polled, came in Colorado and West Virginia. In those two states, Senator McCain is in a statistical tie with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani - and most importantly, McCain is miles ahead of all other Republican hopefuls, including Romney. The results in all four states, were based on ARG polling, conducted among 600 likely Republican primary voters, with a 4% +/- margin-of-error and a 95% confidence interval:
Colorado
Giuliani 25%
McCain 23%
Undecided 11%
Thompson 10%
Romney 9%
Gingrich 8%
Tancredo 7%
West Virginia
McCain 33%
Giuliani 29%
Undecided 18%
Romney 8%
Thompson 6%
Gingrich 6%
In both Colorado (where Giuliani has a two-point lead) and West Virginia (where McCain has a four-point lead), the ARG polls yield identical results: in both cases, a statistical tie. (Please click the ARG Ballot Lead Calculator link below, to see why. It does all the math automatically, when it comes to margins of error.)
There was also good news for Senator McCain in New Jersey, where it would seem that Giuliani would hold a huge advantage, due to its proximity to New York City. McCain trails by only 15% in the Garden State - and once again, far outpaces all other Republicans, declared candidates or otherwise.
New Jersey
Giuliani 38%
McCain 23%
Gingrich 10%
Undecided 9%
Thompson and Romney 8% each
Of course, as could be expected, McCain is a distant, distant second to Giuliani, in New York State:
Giuliani - 50%
McCain - 14%
Undecided - 14%
Thompson and Romney - 7% each
However, the upside to the NY poll is that McCain is well ahead of both former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former U.S. Senator Fred Dalton Thompson of Tennessee, who both polled 7% in the Empire State.
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Sources:
Polls
Ballot Lead Calculator (automatic margin-of-error calculator)
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