Election Night HQ

Now that all of the suspense is over and we know that FDT is running - after, ironically, serving as McCain’s national co-chair in 2000 - the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza had an exceptionally cogent analysis, on how FDT’s entry will affect other Republican candidates, throughout the nomination process.

The most intriguing part of The Fix’s analysis, was the statement that McCain’s rivals (i.e., Rudy, Romney) believe that McCain has a ceiling of support in Iowa/NH/SC that hovers between 20% and 30% but which he cannot exceed.

Here’s what The Fix had to say about FDT’s impact on his friend, Senator McCain, in Fred’s In, Who’s Hurt:

“The news that former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) is going to run for president isn’t terribly surprising. He’s been moving in that direction for the last several months and in the past few weeks has hired both a campaign manager and a general counsel.But now that Thompson appears to be an official candidate, it’s worth looking at how he affects the rest of the field. Here’s our take on how Thompson impacts each of his major potential rivals; obviously until he’s in the race for a few months it will be impossible to measure the full impact, but the thoughts below represent our best guess…John McCain: A Thompson candidacy is a mix of good and bad news for the Arizona Senator. Let’s take the good news first. (The Fix is nothing if not an optimist.)Most strategists for McCain’s rivals believe that he has a ceiling of support in each of the early states that hovers between 20 percent and 30 percent. Those supporters will never leave McCain but, his opponents argue, he will struggle to add any serious new support since he is almost entirely known by the Republican electorate and they haven’t sided with him yet.With Thompson in the race, the field becomes even more fractured — going from three serious candidates to four. Say what you will about Thompson, but even before he has set foot in places like Iowa and New Hampshire he is already in the mix along with McCain, Romney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. If Thompson can draw away 10 percent or more of the vote in early states that might otherwise default to Giuliani or Romney, it enhances McCain’s chances of winning the nomination.The bad news for McCain from Thompson’s entry is that it may well complicate the Arizona Senator’s fundraising. Thompson will enjoy “hot new thing” status for at least a month, and that month also happens to be the final one of the second fundraising quarter. McCain needs to win the cash dash in the second quarter to show the first three months of the year were a fluke and that he belongs in the top tier.”