Inside the NH Numbers: Romney Surges Out to Significant Lead over Giuliani, McCain, in Latest Independent Poll
The Tower was pleased to see some hard, quantifiable numbers for the Granite State primary. Let’s take a detailed look at the results of the independent Franklin Pierce College/WBZ poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters. (Most reports have just listed the results and left it at that, but the full poll has some worthwhile information in it and should be brought to light.)
Who’s Ahead?
Romney has drastically improved his standing in NH since the last FPC/WBZ poll in March. He currently leads the pack with 27%, with Giuliani and McCain in a statistical tie for second with 18% and 17% respectively. Soon-to-be candidate Fred Thompson was included, drawing 9%. Nobody else had any significant support.
What does that mean? Using the ARG polling Ballot Lead calculator, here is what this poll actually means:
The poll surveyed 409 likely Republican primary voters.
The range of Romney’s 9-point lead over Giuliani (27%-18%) actually is: somewhere between 15.4% (the high end) and 2.6% (the low end).
The range of Romney’s 10-point lead over McCain (27%-17%) actually is: somewhere between 16.4% (the high end) and 3.6% (the low end).
This is a drastic change from March 13. Nearly three months ago, McCain and Giuliani shared a lead at 29% and 28% respectively, with Romney a close third at 22%.
Another intriguing conclusion, according to the report:
“It is interesting to note that perceptions that McCain won the debate are stronger among Republican primary voters who watched the debate AND read, saw or heard news stories about the debate in the media. Among these voters, nearly one-fourth (23%) said that McCain outperformed his rivals. These results suggest that McCain benefitted from positive news coverage about his performance among respondents who saw the debate.”
Link to the full poll: http://www.fpc.edu/pages/institutes/poll/poll_07_0606.pdf
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