Baltimore Sun: Signs that McCain “is pulling out of a tailspin”…
On Sunday, The Tower found a particularly worthwhile piece from Paul West of the Baltimore Sun, on Senator McCain’s campaign as a whole. Here is the opening section:
MANCHESTER, N.H. // Vultures are circling John McCain’s campaign bus.
The candidate formerly known as America’s most admired politician is in serious trouble in the presidential contest, his detractors say. The problem: He’s “too old, too Washington and too Iraq war,” as one ex-supporter put it.
McCain, 70, is no longer the Republican front-runner, but the whispers out of rival camps that his candidacy is on the verge of collapsing seem premature. Instead, after a dismal few months, there are signs that the Arizona senator is pulling out of a tailspin.
With help from a new debate coach, he’s sharpened his performance in televised forums. Some analysts called McCain the winner of last week’s debate in New Hampshire. On the stump, he’s showing signs of the form that made him a major national figure in 2000, despite losing the nomination to George W. Bush.
That was the essence of an essentially friendly and optimistic article. Also worth noting on the fundraising sector:
Surprisingly weak fundraising has forced McCain to overhaul his finance operation, trim spending, dismiss 35 to 40 campaign staffers and devote far more of his time to soliciting funds. He’s under pressure to show significant improvement later this month, when the candidates release new money numbers. Aides say he’ll collect more this quarter than he did the first three months of the year.
His skid in the national polls - he placed fourth in a recent Pew Research Center survey - won’t make it easier to coax cash from prospective donors.
The Tower believes that the author was referring to John Weaver’s statement on Friday that McCain would surpass the numbers he posted in the first quarter, and similar statements have probably been made by other aides.
It pointedly observes that the furor over the immigration bill has been further evidence that McCain is not willing to change his positions to appease GOP primary voters. Moreover, despite a torrent of unfavorable coverage, his poll numbers remain strong:
“It became very popular among many to say that McCain was, quote, pandering, to the right,” said McCain. “Now, on immigration and some other things, I’m not pandering to the right.”
Polls suggest that McCain still has a good opportunity to be the top choice of Republican voters. In the latest Pew survey, two out of three Republican voters nationwide said there was either a good chance or some chance that they would vote for McCain, a level of appeal exceeded only by Giuliani, among the announced candidates, and equaled by Thompson.
The Sun concludes with an optimistic assessment on McCain’s prospects:
But in ways large and small, he’s altered his approach to meet the changed realities of the 2008 race. Recently, he’s been working closely with a debate coach, Brett O’Donnell of Liberty University, who is credited by insiders with improving McCain’s presentation.
He’s retooled his message, too, in an effort to turn positions on polarizing issues such as Iraq and immigration into a question of character.
“I want to be president to do the hard things, not the easy things,” he tells voters, though the apparent defeat of the immigration measure set back his efforts to portray himself as a doer who can reach across partisan lines and break the deadlock in Washington.
On the stump these days, he seems more like the McCain of old, the man who held 114 “town hall” meetings in New Hampshire. Running as an insurgent and calling for sweeping reform in Washington, he upset Bush in this state, with strong help from independent voters.
New Hampshire looms large in McCain’s latest strategy, too, but winning will be more difficult this time. He conceded that “we have our work cut out for us” and that 2000 was a long time ago for many voters.
Another hurdle: Polls show that up to three out of four independents - who can vote in either party’s primary - are planning to go Democratic in 2008. Most independents voted in the Republican primary in 2000 and backed McCain by a lopsided margin over Bush…
…Once he finishes a fundraising blitz this month, and another trip to Iraq in early July, he plans to climb back aboard his Straight Talk Express bus.
Having failed to become the establishment favorite and sweep to the nomination in the old Republican style, he’s going back to basics, reverting to his independent style and maverick image, the formula that worked for him before.
This was a very well-researched article, presenting both sides of the story and permitting the reader to draw independent conclusions. Its core thesis can be summarized this way:
Senator McCain is not dominating the Republican field at present, whether that is measured by polling numbers or money raised. But he is certainly a major player in a crowded field of candidates, even if those yardsticks are the only ones used. In the early states - possibly, the only ones that will matter - McCain has competitive poll numbers (and a strong organization, although the Sun article did not specifically mention that). Although no longer the front-runner, he’s still a major contender for the nomination.
Read the entire text here.
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