NH poll shows Romney ahead of Rudy, McCain - but 57% of NH GOP voters have “no idea who they’ll vote for”
The Tower is going to spend some time breaking down the latest New Hampshire poll, because it is not really of all that much value, in terms of the feelings of the Republican electorate in the one state that John McCain absolutely has to win. The source is the UNH/CNN/WMUR poll released on Tuesday, June 12.
The numbers
Romney 28%
McCain/Giuliani 20%
Fred Thompson 11%
Undecided 8%
The other 13% was scattered among other candidates, with no individual garnering more than 4%.
The true numbers, in terms of margin of error, make it difficult to make any airtight generalizations about this poll - other than the fact that Romney is clearly ahead. Because the sample size was so small (304 likely NH Republican primary voters), Romney’s lead over the other two candidates could be as large as 15.4% - or as low as 0.3% (not 3% - 0.3%!) So he’s ahead by less than one point, or as much as over 15%.
However, these numbers are much more significant. Very few Republicans are moored to their candidates, as Jonathan Martin at the Politico pointed out. (Hat tip to him for his post on this point, which called these numbers to The Tower’s attention.) Look at the numbers on this question:
Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary… are you leaning toward someone… or do you have no idea who you’ll vote for?”
Definitely decided 6%
Leaning toward someone 37%
No idea 57%
Martin’s take on this point:
“Andy Smith, the UNH political science professor who analyzes the surveys his school conducts along with CNN/WMUR, points to an interesting number in their latest poll.
57% of those likely to vote in the GOP primary selected “no idea who you’ll vote for” when asked about their inclination at this point.
“We probably pay more attention to [the campaign] than anybody else in the country, but we have lives, too,” Smith observed by way of pointing out that the race is still largely unformed.”
The Tower wholeheartedly agrees with both Martin (full story here) and Smith on this point.
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