Politico’s Jonathan Martin: twin yardsticks of polls and $$$ are to McCain’s disadvantage
The Politico’s Jonathan Martin offers a pessimistic assessment of Senator McCain’s chances, at this point in time, based on the only genuinely objective, quantitative evidence available: polls and the “money primary”. Here are some key excerpts:
“Really, there are just two indicators that reporters and observers can look to in the immediate future: the second quarter fundraising deadline at the end of this month and the steady diet of national and state polls that now seem to pop up on an almost daily basis.
Which is not good news for John McCain…
Just the same, when rumors fly (and eventually get in print) about supposed fundraising problems, the narrative becomes self-fulfilling. Would coming in third again this quarter behind Romney and Giuliani be some sign that, as opponents want us to believe, the “wheels are coming off?” Not necessarily. But it also wouldn’t do anything to challenge that view and may lead some otherwise soft donors to stray.
It’s an ugly cycle, that intersection of perception, polls and fundraising, but the conventional wisdom that it creates has been defied before.”
This is a reasonable thesis. We have a better picture of polls because they become public far more often than the campaign finance reports do. And it only underscores the importance of McCain’s campaign team bringing in more cash by the end of June.
Read the entire story - “McCain’s metric problem” - here.
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