Election Night HQ

Let me begin this post by coming out of the closet, so to speak, and acknowledging that I have long been one of the few Republicans who spent much of the race for 2008 semi-rooting for McCain. He was my second choice for the GOP nod for much of the past two years, and I supported him over then-Gov. Bush in the Michigan primary in 2000. McCain always struck me as a decent conservative pragmatist in the vein of Bob Dole who would have played very well in the swing states of the Midwest with his understated cultural conservatism and common-sense domestic reformism. But as most observers now admit, McCain’s quest for the presidency is likely nearing its end, with the immigration bill breaking the camel’s back on the right and with McCain’s unwavering support for Iraq obliterating his standing among swing voters. The only question now seems to be whether McCain will stick around to lose in the early primaries next year, or whether he’ll pack it in early and spend his twili
ght years in the upper chamber.

So what does all of this have to do with Rudy? A lot. It is my view that Sen. McCain’s continued presence in the race is preventing Mayor Giuliani from breaking away from the pack, a la Hillary Clinton, and becoming the undisputed national frontrunner for the GOP nod. It is also my view that there is little difference between the shape of the GOP field and the Democratic one, at least at the top tier, excepting that we have a McCain in the race and they don’t. McCain, by drawing disproportionate support from Giuliani, is setting the GOP up for a long, drawn-out primary season that Rudy will win anyway, but only with more promises to the obsolete Bush Base that will hurt him among swing voters in the fall of ‘08. As Yoda, Jedi Master, advised Luke Skywalker upon the latter’s return to the Dagobah system in ROTJ, there is but one task remaining before Rudy can truly embrace Jedi-hood: Rudy must face Darth McCain and get him out of the race, thus acquiring the bulk of Mc
Cain’s supporters and setting himself up for an easy path to the Republican nomination.

The similarities between the parties’ respective presidential fields can be seen in the Real Clear Politics polling averages for the horserace on either side, a snapshot of which can be found on the RCP front page. At first glance, the parties appear quite dissimilar, with Hillary Clinton enjoying a massive lead over her nearest competitor, Barack Obama, who in turn is doing a bit better than his second-place counterpart on the GOP side, Fred Thompson. But again, these are polls that include the now-defunct candidate McCain. Here are the current polling averages posted on RCP:

Real Clear Politics Polling Averages

GOP Nomination

Rudy: 28%
Thompson: 18.7%
McCain: 15.5%
Romney: 9.8%

Democratic Nomination
Hillary: 39.5%
Obama: 24.8%
Edwards: 10.5%

The fields are more similar than they are different. In each case, the candidate on the tail end of the national average is a one-term public official who won statewide in enemy territory, who is relatively young, and who does better in the early states than in national polls. Coming in second in each field is the candidate who excites various elements of the party base and who supposedly has some appeal to centrists and swing voters based either on personal charisma or star power (of the Hollywood variety). And leading each field is a New Yorker who is viewed by the party base as too centrist and who is viewed by swing voters as being not centrist enough, or at least not sufficiently disconnected from the party establishment. But only in the Republican field is there a McCain. He has no Democratic counterpart.

Because we have so little data on what McCain voters would actually do in his absence, we are forced to make a few assumptions. First, let’s assume that McCain’s supporters likely fall into three roughly equally sized categories. One category consists of Bob Dole Conservatives, folks who are tempermental but not ideological conservatives, who show up at VFW meetings, and who would prefer that the old mainstream Protestant white guy who will effect the least change on the nation become president. The second category probably could be defined as Main Streeters, pro-business types who want a fiscally prudent president, who care little about social issues, and who vote GOP for no other reason than that the Democrats will make their lives harder economically. A third group consists of secular conservatives, more commonly known as South Park Republicans. These voters are very fiscally conservative and extremely hawkish, but are largely pro-choice, have gay friends, and are prim
arily areligious. They liked McCain in 2000 because of his fiscal conservatism, military creds, and seeming social agnosticism, and some probably hung on for 2008.

If each group comprises about a third of McCain’s support, that means that each represents just over 5% of the GOP electorate that won’t have a candidate in a race without McCain. So who is most likely to scoop up each group? The first category — the VFW guys — will probably go to Thompson, the old, normal, mainstream Protestant in the race whose positions are quite consistent with those of McCain 2000. The latter two groups — the Main Street moderates and secular conservatives — will find a natural home in Camp Rudy. If we distribute these voters accordingly, Rudy would then lead the field with between 38 and 39 percent, Thompson would have nearly 24 percent of the vote, and Romney would remain at about 10 percent. These numbers are almost identical to the Hillary/Obama/Edwards spread. In other words, a race without McCain is a race in which Rudy leads the GOP field with the same advantage that Hillary has over her fellow Democrats. And that would make Rudy the i
nevitable nominee, which would allow him to start running for the general election, which Hillary is doing as we speak.

Memo to Rudy: get McCain out of this race. Promise him anything. He wants to be SecDef? Great. Veep? Move him to the top of the shortlist. Whatever it takes, Mr. Mayor, whatever it takes. Because a race without McCain is a race you can’t lose.