Expectations Game: In 1999, McCain did not participate in the Ames, Iowa straw poll - finishing 10th out of 12 candidates with 83 votes (0.35%)
The Ames, Iowa Straw Poll is all about expectations. By definition, the best expectations to have are - none whatsoever. In 2000, Senator McCain opted to decline to participate not only in the Straw Poll, but the Iowa caucuses entirely. Instead, he opted to concentrate all of his limited resources on New Hampshire. It was a decision vindicated by his 48%-30% landslide victory over then-Gov. George W. Bush in the Granite State.
Much has been made about how Senator McCain could benefit from “doing well” in the 2007 Straw Poll, without even competing. Accordingly, it’s of interest to ask the following question: how well did McCain do in the 1999 Straw Poll, without even competing?
Well, it shouldn’t be too difficult for McCain to surpass his 1999 showing. Eight summers ago, while appearing a dozen-candidate ballot, McCain received a grand total of 83 votes - out of 23,685 cast. (That’s not a typo. Eighty-three votes.) Bush, the winner, received 7,418 votes, 31% of the total. In contrast, McCain finished with 0.35% of the vote - three and a half tenths of 1%.
McCain’s 83 votes/0.35%, surprisingly, were good enough, to avoid finishing in last place. In fact, McCain actually breezed into 10th place. Then-Rep. John Kasich of Ohio finished 11th with nine votes, and then-Sen. Bob Smith of New Hampshire finished 12th with eight votes. (In fairness, though, both Kasich and Smith had already withdrawn from the race.) Also, McCain’s 10th was very distant, as Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, the 9th-place finisher, received 558 votes, over six times McCain’s total.
It seems likely that nobody in 1999 anticipated that the 10th-place finisher in Ames, would win in New Hampshire in a landslide. Of course, McCain is universally known today, unlike 1999. As a result, he will have no trouble exceeding the 83 votes he received, eight years ago. And as previously noted, the expectations for him are - nil. So even a very modest showing will look like a victory.
The complete results of the 1999 Ames straw poll:
Results from the Aug. 14, 1999 Iowa GOP straw poll; 23,685 votes were counted (courtesy of MSNBC’s First Read and the Iowa GOP):
Votes %
George W. Bush 7,418 31%
Steve Forbes 4,921 21%
Elizabeth Dole 3,410 14%
Gary Bauer 2,114 9%
Pat Buchanan 1,719 7%
Lamar Alexander 1,428 6%
Alan Keyes 1,101 5%
Dan Quayle 916 4%
Orrin Hatch 558 2%
John McCain 83 0%
John Kasich 9 0%
Bob Smith 8 0%
You can read the MSNBC/First Read article here. You can read the original Iowa GOP press release here.
You can contact The Tower at tower@campaignia.org.