Boston Globe’s Donahue: “McCain understands Granite State”.
On Tuesday, August 21, the Boston Globe published an article by Jennifer Donahue, a senior adviser at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, in which she offers a decidedly upbeat assessment of Senator McCain’s campaign in New Hampshire. Here it is:
SENATOR JOHN McCAIN just spent two weekends in a row in New Hampshire. Unlike some of the candidates who didn’t run in 2000, he understands two important things about the state’s presidential primary contest. One is the importance of the August before the primary. In August 1999, McCain solidified his base in New Hampshire, while George W. Bush all but ignored the state. McCain won the primary, though not the nomination.
The other thing McCain knows is that New Hampshire gives supposedly faltering front-runners a chance to come back. By campaigning intensely in the state, Al Gore effectively stamped Bill Bradley out in August 1999. Similarly, as insurgent Howard Dean focused on Iowa over New Hampshire in August 2003, John Kerry faced frustrated voters in New Hampshire — and ended up winning.
What McCain has in common this year with Gore and Kerry is that the press anointed all three as front-runners before the campaign began. The expectations for such “early favorites” are often based on polls taken so early that only the candidates with existing name recognition place well.
These expectations are also impossible to meet. As obscure candidates become known and gain a little ground in the polls, it suddenly looks as though the front-runner is in free fall. The money race is then affected by the press coverage and poll numbers, which make it harder for the “early favorites” to raise funds.
McCain has been both the beneficiary and the victim of this dynamic. In 2000, he was the surprise underdog candidate with no expectations to beat, and the press loved him as he climbed in the polls. Now McCain finds himself in Bush’s old role. The press started calling him the front-runner in the 2008 race as soon as the 2004 election was over. In recent months, though, news accounts have emphasized his sagging poll numbers and lackluster fund-raising.
But the political dynamics in New Hampshire look much less dire. The top-tier Republican candidates all supported the war in Iraq and still do. If Republican voters don’t find a significant policy difference between them, only one candidate stands out. McCain is a veteran.
Meanwhile, independents, McCain’s bread and butter in the 2000 race, have increased from 33 percent then to over 40 percent now. In New Hampshire, such undeclared voters can take either party’s ballot. If independents reflect the country as a whole, they likely lean against the war. But what voters liked about McCain in 2000 was his divergent policy positions and maverick leadership style. In this respect, McCain still differs from his Republican rivals.
“Torture doesn’t work. I promise you, torture doesn’t work,” McCain testified to a filled American Legion hall in Conway, N.H., Aug. 11.
“I have a long, proud record of being prolife, and I believe in stem cell research,” McCain told the crowd.
“I have always supported campaign finance reform and still do.
“Climate change is real and we have to address it.”
These issues are not core Republican or Democratic issues. McCain’s positions reflect what a lot of people think, regardless of party.
When former senator Fred Thompson enters the race, he’ll get a lot of press attention, just as Wesley Clark did when he made a late entry into a muddled field in 2003. The Tennessean, like McCain, will be racing against the clock. Thompson, because he is new to the field. McCain, because of a false start, several staff shake-ups, and the realization he had to build support from the bottom up.
“Guess who called me on Saturday,” said Erin Flanagan, who asked a question of McCain at a televised debate in June and mentioned the death of her 24-year-old brother in Iraq. “Senator McCain called. He said he was thinking of me and my family.”
McCain had requested to meet with the Flanagans before a three-day campaign swing last month. He dined with Erin, her sister, and her parents. The other person at the table was McCain’s son, Jimmy, newly engaged and within days of going to serve in Iraq.
Leaving the Legion Hall in Conway, McCain was asked whether he thinks he is getting traction. “I think so. Crowds like this will help.” He smiled and made eye contact. Then he turned to shake hands with a line of voters.
Jennifer Donahue is senior adviser at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College. 
You can read the full text of the original article here. You can contact The Tower at tower@campaignia.org.