Race42008.com: SurveyUSA Polls in Swing States of Iowa, Wisconsin Show McCain As Strongest GOP Candidate Vs. HRC
On Friday, November 17, Race42008.com’s Aron Goldman published the results of two SurveyUSA polls in the key swing states of Iowa and Wisconsin. Iowa was one of only three states to switch sides from 2000 to 2004, going from blue to red. It had not been carried by a Republican in a presidential race in two decades. As for Wisconsin - although no Republican has carried it since 1984 in a presidential race - it was extremely competitive in both 2000 and 2004. It thus ranks high on the target list of the 2008 nominee, due to the relative scarcity of competitive states.
In both of these key swing states, Senator McCain is doing considerably better against Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, than any of his GOP rivals for the nomination, according to these SurveyUSA polls. In both states, McCain is locked in a statistical tie with Clinton. All of his rivals trail her by statistically significant margins, with the sole exception of Rudy Giuliani in Iowa. However, in Iowa, McCain leads her by 4% while Rudy trails her by 4%, both are within the margin of error and thus ties. The margin of error is +/-4.3%, so it’s a dead heat. In Wisconsin, he trails her by just 2%, thus also a statistical tie.
Here’s Iowa:
Survey of 546 registered voters was conducted November 9-11. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points.
Here’s Wisconsin:
Survey of 528 registered voters was conducted November 9-11. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. In the 2004 presidential election, Senator Kerry edged President Bush in Wisconsin, 50-49%.
You can read the original Race42008.com posts here (Iowa) and here (Wisconsin). You can contact Election Night HQ at publisher@electionnighthq.com.