The Atlantic’s Ambinder: “Iowa Will See McCain Once More”
by Election Night HQ’s Publisher
On Tuesday afternoon, The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder reported the following news on McCain returning to Iowa:
18 Dec 2007 12:09 pm
SALEM — Sen. John McCain plans a final visit to Iowa before the caucuses, a campaign aide said today, sometime between Christmas and New Years. Despite the surprise endorsement of the Des Moines Register, McCain and his aides aren’t rethinking their decision to concentrate resources in New Hampshire and are more than happy to let Mike Huckabee beat Mitt Romney, softening him up for New Hampshire.
I was astonished to read this. I’ve previously posted on what I describe as the Iowa vs. New Hampshire Dilemma, and come down wholeheartedly in favor of the “abandon Iowa, which is a lost cause, and concentrate on New Hampshire instead” option. Given Senator McCain’s polling in Iowa - which remains mired between 5-7% in the last seven independent polls, according to Pollster.com, this seemed to be the only strategy.
Thus - my surprise at Ambinder’s post. However, when I went back to Pollster and looked at the numbers carefully, I can now understand the rationale for returning to Iowa. McCain remains stuck between 5-7%, and nowhere near Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney… but…
The Huck phenomenon is also causing Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson to sink. Take a look at the last three independent polls, for the lower tier in Iowa:
In all three of the polls, McCain is locked in a statistical tie with Fred Thompson and Ron Paul. In two of those three polls, he’s also tied with Giuliani. In other words, two of the three most recent polls are showing a four-way tie for a very distant third place in Iowa on the Republican side.
Research 2000: Huck 31%, Mitt 22%, Fred/Rudy 9%, McCain/Paul 7%.
Diageo/Hotline: Huck 36%, Mitt 23%, Rudy 12%, Fred 8%, McCain/Paul 5%.
Rasmussen: Huck 39%, Mitt 23%, Fred/Rudy 8%, McCain 6%, Paul 5%.
Accordingly, with McCain riding a boomlet of free media, due to all of his endorsements, it appears that a third-place finish in Iowa - once thought impossible - might actually be feasible after all. And if he can get that third ticket out of Iowa, plus a big Huck win over Mitt, it might be enough to catapult him to victory in New Hampshire, and possibly the nomination.
Granted, the obstacles are considerable. Fred, who has virtually no support in New Hampshire, has the opposite dilemma of McCain, vis-a-vis Iowa. He has decided to place all of his chips on Iowa, heading there on a bus tour. McCain’s numbers also haven’t climbed out of single-digits in Iowa for a very long time. But you never know…
You can contact Election Night HQ at publisher@electionnighthq.com.
Yeah, it might not be the worst thing to leave Fortress New Hampshire for a couple days. Up here in Maine, I’m getting ready for the storm. If McCain wins NH, suddenly this whole race is upside down. And hey, any delegate is good.
With a recent poll showing McCain with a shot at getting 3rd place in the caucuses, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to write off Iowa at all. If the Senator gets 3rd, *that* will be the story coming out of IA regardless of where Huckabee and Romney end up.