Ambinder, via Monday Morning Clacker - So what WILL turnout be - in both primaries - in NH on Tuesday?
As I’ve previously noted in another McCain post , the Concord Monitor quoted the infinitely-respected NH Secretary of State Bill Gardner as to his estimates of turnout in the GOP and Democratic primaries, respectively, on Tuesday. Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic, who also has graced this blog many times because of his reporting on the campaign trail, offers this summary in “Turnout on Tuesday”:
Here’s what Secretary of State Bill Gardner projects:
500,000 voters.
90,000 independents choose Obama.
60,000 independents choose McCain.
260,000 votes for Democrats
240,000 votes for Republicans
So — about 25% of the Republican primary vote will be comprised of independents.
And 33% of the Democratic primary vote will be comprised of independents.
The road forward for John McCain is clear: run close to even among Republicans and get the majority of independents.
A 500,000 project splits the difference between the last presidential electon (674K) and the last gubernatorial election (417K).
Of course, a big assist should go to the Monday Morning Clacker at Green Mountain Politics1, for spotting Ambinder’s post and putting it on GMP1 to begin with - here are the Clacker’s concise thoughts on the story in “Stuff Worth Knowing”:
Marc Ambinder ain’t perfect.
But neither are we.
And Marc’s blog consistently posts “stuff worth knowing”.
Here’s today’s example regarding tomorrow’s Primary.
You can contact Election Night HQ at publisher@electionnighthq.com.