Election Night HQ

Last night, Saturday, January 19, The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder wrote the following in his post - “McCain Wins”:

 McCain!

Why?
(1) Five years of hard work by McCain, consultants Richard Quinn and John Weaver in upstate South Carolina….the endorsement of the Greenville, SC state senator…apologizing to Falwell…
(2) demographics: growth in Charleston, Midlands and Horry county…
(3) The surge worked…and McCain stayed in the news…
(4) Rick Davis slims down the campaign, keeps staff in SC, but focuses on NH
(5) Thompson saps conservative votes from Huckabee…
(6) Romney’s decision to pull out at the last minute…Giuliani’s decision to pull out earlier…
(7) Veterans, enough Republicans and independents…

I’d like to comment on Marc’s outstanding compilation of the various and sundry factors, which led to McCain’s victory in SC.  In turn:

1) Groundwork in SC.

This was enormously important.  Over the years, mindful of what had happened in 2000, McCain assiduously courted the GOP establishment that had helped defeat him that year.  Very early in the process, McCain built a strong organization early, and also picked up key SC endorsements such as Attorney General Henry McMaster.

2) Demographic growth in Charleston, Midlands and Horry County.

Also, an enormous factor…

Take a look at the results in these coastal areas of SC, the key to the victory:

Georgetown County (100% in)

McCain  39%
Huck     22%
Mitt      20%
Fred     14%

Charleston County (100% in)-

McCain  44%
Mitt       23%
Huck     17%
Fred        9%

Beaufort County (100% in)

McCain   44%
Mitt         23%
Huck       17%
Fred         9%
Rudy        6%

Horry County (unfortunately, only 45% in on these maps), but thus far:

McCain 32%
Huck     27%
Mitt      19%
Fred     15%

And it wasn’t just McCain’s strength on the coast.  Turnout was a big, big factor in a close race like this one, where McCain won 33%-30% statewide over Huck. 

Of the 13 SC counties that had the lowest turnout rate, a full dozen of them were in the conservative, inland Upstate.  Huck won the entire dozen - in fact, he won most of those counties by double-digit margins over McCain.  But the low turnout in those 12 counties hurt him.

Ironically, the lowest turnout county was down near the coast, although not on it - Allendale.  And perhaps because it was the lowest turnout, it was McCain’s best county in the entire state, in terms of vote share.  He actually got a majority of the vote in Allendale, in a five-way race (if you count Rudy)/four-way race (if you don’t):

Allendale County (100% in)

McCain  51%
Huck      25%
Fred         9%
Mitt         8%

Source for the full data (although some counties are still incomplete) - the Charlotte Observer, via The State newspaper of South Carolina.

and-

 the outstanding political cartographers at The Politico, although their numbers also aren’t yet complete.

3)   The surge in Iraq and McCain staying in the news.

I agree that the success of the surge in Iraq vindicated McCain’s view of it and made it less damaging to him politically.  It also kept his free-media alive during the campaign’s crisis throughout the summer and fall.

4) Rick Davis’s campaign management.

Davis masterfully managed his resources, concentrating on NH (victory there was a sine qua non for the McCain campaign to continue), and at the same time, leaving enough resources in SC to squeeze out a victory like this one.

5) Fred absolutely damaged Huck’s chances.

And I speculate (note: speculate, since I haven’t found an exit poll asking Fred voters whom their 2nd choice would have been) that given the closeness of the statewide result, Huck would have won, if Fred had not been running. 

Numberswise, Fred and Huck certainly ran well in the same areas.  Fred’s six best counties were in the Upstate.  In those half-dozen counties - ones in which he received 20%+, while he got 16% statewide (note: the statewide totals are not all in)- they were all carried by Huck.  In summary, Fred got 16% statewide, in a race Huck lost by 3%.

6) Mitt’s decision to pull out at the last minute.

I’m not sure how much of a factor that was.  Mitt did better along the coast, although I doubt that Mitt was losing voters to McCain as their second choice.  Also, Mitt played in SC for all of 2007, and as Jon Martin at the Politico notes, he had “a staff presence since 2006″.  He ran TV ads all year and had a substantial state organization.  Granted, he abandoned the state in the last two weeks, but he had campaigned really hard there, for a very long time.  If voters weren’t with him already, it’s hard to see how the last two weeks made much of a difference.

7) Veterans, Republicans, and independents.

Veterans were McCain’s strongest group, he won them by 11% over Huck.  This was in marked contrast to 2000, when McCain was only able to split veterans with GWB, according to the Politico.   And in 2008, this was an electorate in which veterans were a full quarter of the voters, according to MSNBC’s First Read. 

Thoughts, comments, reactions?

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