Election Night HQ

The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder has posted his speculation on the “McCain Veepstakes”:

Just to be irritating, here’s a list of potential vice presidents for John McCain. Some of the names are based on informed speculation about who McCain likes and what he wants to see in a ticket-mate; others are just guesses.

Are they in any particular order? Maybe…

1. Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
2. Gov. John Huntsman (R-UT)
3. Sen. John Thune (R-SD)
4. Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson
5. Ex-Sen. George Allen
6. Gov. Bobby Jindall (R-LA)
7. Mike Huckabee
8. Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL)
9. Mitt Romney

Who else? 

My two cents on Marc’s list (as he lists them). I’ll note that there are standard ticket-balancing principles involved. McCain is old, from the Southwest, and has been in the Senate (and before that, the House) for a quarter of a century. Accordingly, it would be desirable to find a VP who offset some of those factors.

1. Tim Pawlenty

- endorsed McCain early.
- young, from a potential swing state (Minnesota will be in play w/ McCain as the nominee, even though no Republican has carried it since 1972).
- a governor w/ no DC experience.

2. Huntsman

- Although Huntsman is a governor, he’s not only from the West but from the most Republican state in the country. Can’t imagine why he’d be on it.

3. Thune - same as 2), but w/ the added negative of also being from the Senate.

4. Fred - has been friends w/ McCain for a long time, and was his national co-chair in 2000. As he is a favorite of the conservative establishment, is personable, and could shore up Southern support, he’d be on the short list. The real question would be whether his decision to run against McCain might have doomed him.

5. Crist

Crist is governor of the most important swing state, Florida. His support of McCain the weekend prior to the primary may have vaulted him over Mitt. However, it might look too much like a smoke-filled room deal to put him on the ticket.

6. Jindal

Would be a daring choice, and would balance the ticket well. But it’s a tough row to hoe, pitching that Jindal is sufficiently old and experienced to serve as VP.

7) Huck

The smart money says it’s Huck - I’m not sure I agree, but he would not only balance the ticket but probably bring along his base. Plus, in a race against HRC, he might hold Arkansas.

Candidates with an absolute zero chance of being on the ticket (at least to me):

Mitt, George Allen.

Update: Ambinder has released his second list - “Some Other McCain Veepstakes Names”…  my take, in turn….

My two cents on Marc’s second-wave list of McCain VP candidates, in the order he listed:

As I did with Part I of the list: I’ll reiterate that there are standard ticket-balancing principles involved. McCain is old, from the Southwest, and has been in the Senate (and before that, the House) for a quarter of a century. Accordingly, it would be desirable to find a VP who offset some of those factors.

Submitted by readers:

Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK)
Ex-Rep. Rob Portman
Ex-Rep. John Kasich
Sen. KBH (R-TX)
Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC)
Ex-Gov. John Englder (R-MI)
Fred Smith (Fedex CEO, war hero)
Rudy Giuliani
Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS)

1) Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK)

Palin has a bright future, is young, female, a governor and from another region. It would parry HRC to some extent, if she is the Democratic nominee. However, she is young (double-edged sword) and the experience question would be immediately raised. There’s also the problem that she comes from a very red state that McCain will carry easily.

The two former Reps from Ohio:

Ex-Rep. Rob Portman

Not well known enough nationally to make a difference.

Ex-Rep. John Kasich

Likewise. Also, House members have been elected from too narrow a political base to help the ticket much.

Of course, Ohio is one of the two most critical swing states, but they just don’t bring enough to the table.

Sen. KBH (R-TX)

Female and well-respected. Downside: retiring from the Senate and has no outsider credentials, from a state McCain already will have.

Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC)

SC is already deep red; Sanford had a chance to endorse McCain in the primary and didn’t do so.

Ex-Gov. John Engler (R-MI)

Too polarizing. He would not guarantee Michigan, either.

Fred Smith (Fedex CEO, war hero)

Too unconventional. Plus, McCain is, of course, already a war hero, so he has the veteran/military angle already covered.

Rudy Giuliani

He rarely seems to appear on the pundits’ speculation list (this one excluded, obviously.)

My own speculation as to why he’s rarely mentioned:

1) McCain has enough problems with movement conservatives to begin with. Granted, enough of them went to Rudy over the course of the last year…. but that might be a little too much.

2) I disagree with the idea that Rudy would be of decisive value in the Northeast. Would he HELP? Absolutely. But it was unlikely that Rudy would have carried Rhode Island, Connecticut, or New York even if he were on the TOP of the ticket, let alone the bottom of it.

3) Rudy would be too old to run for president after McCain, if the ticket were elected - and that might be a reason why Rudy might turn it down.

Nonetheless, it would be a ticket great on security credentials, geographical balance, legislative/executive balance, and the two are genuinely friends. But I don’t think it will happen.

Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS)

Although currently a governor, Barbour’s status as former RNC chair make him too much of a DC insider - and his state is already safe for McCain, anyhow.

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