Ana Marie Cox/Swampland: “McCain By the Numbers” - Exit Poll Analysis from the Chesapeake/Potomac Primaries
Ana Marie Cox, the alter ego of the Wonkette, blogs for Swampland on Time.com, where she provides a unique, irreverent perspective on the campaign trail.
AMC’s SwampCast on Wednesday, February 13, was titled: “McCain: By the Numbers”, as her analysis zeroed in on the exit poll numbers from Senator McCain’s trio of victories on Tuesday…
A very good, thoughtful SwampCast on these primaries…
1) Three.
McCain’s trio of victories in the Chesapeake/Potomac primaries.
2) 2%.
The number of points ahead by which the exit polls showed Huck.
3) 11%.
The number of points by which McCain ultimately beat Huck.
The race wasn’t called till relatively late in the evening, despite the fact that McCain won relatively easily. At the time, I attributed it to the fact that the McCain-friendly DC suburbs turned in their returns late, but it seems that a major factor in the delayed call was that Huck appeared to do better in the exit polls, which are incorporated in the decision to call a state…
A good question, per exit polls, although, on the whole, I think they’re reliable…
4) 32%.
Percentage of conservatives that McCain won in VA
5) 43%
Likewise, the numbers of conservatives McCain won in MD.
I disagree w/ AMC to some extent when she says that “the states aren’t that different”. Virginia, although trending Democratic, is considerably more conservative than Maryland (if for no other reason that no Democrat has carried Virginia in a presidential campaign since 1956, and Maryland has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate, conversely, since 1984.)
I agree that there are some similarities, but on the whole, I don’t think it’s surprising that McCain won more self-ID’d conservatives in MD than he did in VA - Huck has more of a natural constituency in VA.
6) 3 out of 4 church attendance categories in which McCain either won or tied Huck.
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