Election Night HQ

On Friday, August 1, The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder had some detailed analysis of the current polling between Senators McCain and Obama, and some observations on where the race stands now, polling-wise.  It’s worth repeating in its entirety.

Gallup’s daily tracking now has the candidates tied, exactly, at 44%.

LAKELAND, FL — Lookit. Let’s make a distinction between short term and long term. In the short term, to those low information voters whose opinion swings from day to day or week to week, Obama’s had the rougher go of it. The Britney ad sold. Even if the optics were bad for McCain in the long-term, the conversation was about Obama’s presumed presumptuous and riskiness. In the long-term, who knows? This presidential race is not like a football game where points accumulate cumulatively. In politics, the fourth quarter matters a lot more than the third quarter, although the third quarter can certainly influence the play in the fourth. My sense is that the Obama campaign is not surprised by the tightening; that they are not particularly worried by it; that it does not disrupt their field strategy or general election message; that they are more irked than concerned about the coverage; and that they believe that the hit is short term.

The Florida headlines tonight on TV and tomorrow in the papers will be indicative of something. If they’re about Obama’s economic message or on drilling or on a catastrophy insurance fund, his team will be happy. If they’re about the hecklers (i.e., Obama and African American hecklers — though one was white, but OK, race, the race card), they’ll be less happy.

The McCain strategy seems to be: be mean now so we can be magnanimous and nice when more people are paying attention. It’s very risky. I know for a fact that current campaign advisers and some aides aren’t entirely sold on it. But in the short term, it’s working. And McCain did need a short term jolt of some sort. The challenge will be figure out how to sustain this.,.. how to press deeply so that these low information voters never again find Obama unrisky and never again take him as seriously…without damaging McCain permanently.

Thoughts are welcome.

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